It's always a bummer when the Packers lose in the playoffs because it means there is no more football left to watch.*As a fan you hear that defense and elite quarterbacks win championships, but that's not entirely true. The key to winning the Super Bowl is making the playoffs. A lot.
Though this absence of football also applies to their Super
Bowl-winning seasons, in these instances the void is filled with a
comforting glow that lasts until fall.
In this age of parity a playoff game is more of a toss-up than it ever was. Whereas home field advantage used to mean certain victory, six of the past ten teams that went undefeated at home in the regular season lost their first playoff game; a home game, nonetheless. Furthermore, the last six Super Bowl winners would not have won if not for an extraordinarily unlikely play or sequence of events (i.e. The Helmet Catch, Joe Flacco to Jacoby Jones, et al). So while having a great defense, great quarterback, or some other exceptional facet helps you make the playoffs, once there your fate is decided by a roll of the bones. And if you earn enough chances to roll, good things will happen. Just ask the Green Bay Packers.
If you accept that every team has a ~50% of winning a playoff game, then every playoff team has a roughly 1:6 (16.7% chance of making the Super Bowl (1:4 if you earn a bye). The Packers have made the playoffs 16 times since 1993, advancing to three Super Bowls and winning two. To put it another way, their recent playoff ventures have netted a Super Bowl appearance and win at the rate of 18.8% and 12.5%, respectively. This is not bad at all.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results, but having Aaron Rodgers or Brett Favre at quarterback certainly helps keeps the Super Bowl odds in your favor. If you roll the dice enough eventually they will come up in whatever number helps you win at craps. Of course, you still need to earn your place at the table.
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